Why I’m finally about to make a bet on Bitcoin….

Wednesday, 1st July 2020

Why I’m finally about to make a bet on Bitcoin….

Gold is on a tear right now….

It’s no surprise. I told you to expect rising gold prices back at the start of April….

The yellow metal is up 12% over the last 3-months….

Current spot prices haven’t been seen since 2012 and we’re 70% ahead of prices at the bottom of the last bear market in 2015….

Right now, gold is testing the psychological price barrier of $1,800 per ounce….

Should it break through that ceiling, gold holders will sail into previously uncharted territory….

  • Laughing at the cautious….

Gold is the traditional safe-haven investment during times of financial turbulence, turmoil, and trouble….

Plenty of capital is seeking out that shelter. But not everybody gets it….

Ardent stock traders – ever confident of perennially rising markets – laugh at this caution….

The FTSE has just posted its best quarter since 2010, they scoff….

European stocks – driven primarily by Germany – haven’t had as good a quarter since way back in 2015….

Over in the US, the Nasdaq has been hitting new highs. The S&P 500 just enjoyed its best quarter since 1998 and its best Q2 results since 1938….… Click here to read more

What a record 50-day rally tells us about what happens next….

Thursday, 11th June 2020

What a record 50-day rally tells us about what happens next….

It is always worth reminding yourself from time to time that markets are essentially forward-looking….

They tend toward pricing-in what investors expect to see next rather than what investors have already seen go through….

  • What’s gone through….

Right now, large parts of the First World are experiencing three crises simultaneously….

There’s the health crisis – with the COVID-19 virus at the root of it….

There’s an economic crisis – created by the combined efforts of the virus and global government….

And there’s a social crisis – driven by the Black Lives Matter protests (you know you’re deep in crisis when boneheads from football hooligan ‘firms’ are rebranded as ‘defenders’ of the nation’s heritage)….

But you don’t need to worry about any of this stuff. Relax yourself, as Roy Keane might say. It’s all going to turn out great….

That’s the message being relayed by the markets….

  • Markets weren’t always so relaxed….

Sure, markets weren’t very relaxed back in March when the COVID-19 virus descended on the world and its inhabitants like some alien invader with bad intentions….

Stock markets worldwide went into freefall….

Looking back through the notes I take daily on events in the world of money, it  really did feel like markets might not pull-out of the nosedive….… Click here to read more

The ancient relationship between experience and money….

Thursday, 28th May 2020

The ancient relationship between experience and money….

Early 2020 is on record as the most volatile period in the markets since the Great Depression….

The CBOE Volatility Index sits at 27.6. That’s well short of a peak fear reading of 82.69 recorded on 16th March….

…. but still ahead of a year-to-date average of 16.0….

…. and a long way above the low readings (signaling confidence and/or complacency) seen for long periods during the bull market that followed the 08/09 global financial crisis….

In other words, volatility has subsided. But it hasn’t gone away. A bit like the COVID-19 virus….

  • Recession ahead….

Something else that hasn’t gone away is worrying data – some of it the worst in living memory….

US jobless claims are at almost 40 million. That’s a fifth of the labour force in the world’s biggest economy sitting idle and watching daytime TV….

Output has slumped worldwide. World trade volumes have shrunk ‘precipitously’. Every metric you might quote is on the floor. Every sector in every economy has contracted….

Things are improving as global lockdowns relax – but only in terms of shrinking at slower pace. The world faces a post COVID-19 of steep and significant proportions….… Click here to read more