Tuesday 31st January 2017
In this issue of Money Truths….
- Nobody knows. Not really….
- When forecasts go wappy….
- We can get it wrong as well as the next man….
- Events – often diametrically opposed to expectation….
- The consensus view – a fine contrarian indicator….
Nobody knows. Not really….
Nobody knows anything. Not really. Nobody knows what will turn out good, bad or ugly….
Nobody knows for sure which market, stock, commodity, bond or currency will rise or fall. By how much, at what rate or when….
Nobody can predict tomorrow’s financial climate – let alone the climate 3-months, 12-months or 5-years hence….
Of course, there’s a multi-billion-dollar financial services industry – populated with all manner of expert – which is dependent on convincing you otherwise….
Economists, bankers, analysts, money-managers, traders, financial advisors, politicians, press pundits and talking heads all make a living peddling the same deceit – that they know what’s going on and what will happen.
But they don’t know. They have mere beliefs and opinions. They make speculative forecasts.
But the thing with a forecast is that it represents an estimation or prediction made in the absence of any certain knowledge….
It amounts to guesswork. Some guesswork will be better-informed than other examples.… Click here to read more