Month: April 2017

Tuesday 25th April 2017

Don’t confuse forecasters with ‘forecasters’….

Rising prices and stagnant wages continue to tighten the noose on British households….

IHS Markit reports its Household Finance Index fell to 42.5 in April – the lowest reading in three years. Brits are feeling increasingly insecure about their finances.

Retailers are feeling the pinch too as consumers tighten purse strings. The ONS says retail sales posted their biggest quarterly fall in 7-years during the first quarter of 2017 – prompting fears of a larger slowdown ahead….

Meanwhile, taxes look set to rise regardless of who wins the upcoming election….

The Chancellor says commitments not to raise taxes in the 2015 Conservative manifesto limit his ability to manage the economy. The shadow Chancellor wants £70k+ earners to be redefined as ‘rich’. Both men are seeking ways to squeeze more juice from the public lemon….

Mrs. May called the snap election after previously insisting she wouldn’t. She might want a clear Brexit mandate. Or to deflect attention from 30 Conservative MPs under investigation for election expense fraud….

Either way, the stock market had its worst week in 5-months on the back of her announcement….

• Spare a thought for forecasters….

Portions of the electorate report being fed up with being called to the ballot box.… Click here to read more

Wednesday 19th April 2017

What I learnt about stellar stock market profits….

Growing up I took a keen interest in the stock market and would pester my parents to buy copies of the Financial Times.

They had no idea why I wanted that newspaper. They considered me caught-up in a fad that would pass.

But to my callow mind, the pink paper contained arcane code that would lead to untold wealth when correctly interpreted.

All you had to do was figure it out….

So, while other kids took their bikes to the BMX track, I was in my bedroom getting to grips with 200-day moving averages and Book to Value ratios….

• Is consistent profit possible?

I went to work in financial publishing. And from there into business.

I met some smart people. Serious investors. Analysts. Fund managers. Brokers. Traders. A lot of people who make good money selling their advice.

I talked to them all. I listened closely. I picked their brains. I read their books and newsletters. I attended conferences, seminars and presentations.

My views changed. Nowadays I wonder if it’s possible for the average investor to consistently make profits in the stock market….

I’m not sure it is. Not the way most investors play….… Click here to read more

Tuesday 11th April 2017

The bomb underneath the banking system….

What you see depends on where you look….

The UK economy grew by 0.7% in Q4 of 2016. The national current account deficit halved. Sterling’s slump has boosted exports – narrowing the shortfall between trade payments and income.

The stock-market rides high. Unemployment is at a decade-low.

Ex-prime ministers command six-figure sums for speeches. Bankers and corporate executives rake-in big salaries….

Looking over there, things seem good. Closer to home, disaster looms….

• The squeeze….

The man-on-the-street is not in demand for lucrative speaking engagements. He’s finding things tough.

Prices are rising. The price of everything rose quicker in February than at any time since 2013. And you can expect prices to continue to rise going forward.

Last week, market research company Kantar Worldpanel said grocery prices rose 2.3% year-on-year in the 12-weeks to 26th March.

Rising importation costs haven’t been fully transferred to consumers. That process is in-train. The pound is weak. It could get weaker. Things will get worse before they get better.

The squeeze is on. Households are pinched. Already there are signs of distress – and the consequences could be dire….

The way British households are responding to tougher economic conditions has the potential to blow the British banking system sky-high….… Click here to read more