Don’t buy into the complacency….

Friday 27th October 2017

Don’t buy into the complacency….

Complacency is something that tends to presage the end of something….

You sometimes see it in the workplace when an employee or colleague stops trying, stops learning and stops contributing – but continues to turn out for the cheque in the mistaken belief that he has a job for life….

You see it with certain businesses where a wrong-headed attitude says you only need throw open the doors and customers will show up regardless of declining values and deteriorating service….

You see it in partnerships of all sorts where one party stops making the effort, stops observing rules and starts behaving badly – overlooking the fact that to remain in any relationship is a partner’s choice and not a mandatory obligation….

  • The rebalancing effect….

Complacency levels tend to peak just ahead of the P45 landing on the desk, the liquidator showing up at the front door or the divorce papers falling through the letterbox….

It’s almost as if the world works to overcome preconceptions that have travelled too far in one direction and need to be rebalanced….

Just when people, businesses and investors feel at their most secure – believing that what is in place now will continue in perpetuity – that’s the exact moment when the wind finally changes direction and blows hard the other way….… Click here to read more

Enjoy the ‘boom’ time – while it lasts….

Tuesday 24th October 2017

Enjoy the ‘boom’ time – while it lasts….

Stock markets are booming – worldwide….

Last week, in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average punched through the 23,000 ceiling for the first time….

The S&P 500 set another all-time high record on Friday – the 49th time this year that’s happened.

The NASDAQ also climbed to a new high-water mark….

  • No market left behind….

The German DAX hit a new high earlier this month. The French CAC 40 rides close to its all-time-peak….

Even the Japanese stock market – that many thought dead – is showing signs of life….

Last week the NIKKEI 250 recorded its longest winning-streak since the 1960s (14-straight days of rising values) and on Thursday registered its highest-close since 1996….

Foe the first time in a generation, the NIKKEI 250 is on a roll….

  • This golden period in British economic history….

The British market continues to ride high too….

Earlier this month the FTSE 100 recorded an all-time high close of 7556.24….

The FTSE 250 also hit new highs. So too the FTSE 350….

If you do nothing all day but sit in a darkened room watching the markets, you might believe Britain is neck-deep in a boom….… Click here to read more

What kind of bubble is bitcoin?

Tuesday 10th October 2017

What kind of bubble is bitcoin?

Not all bubbles are built the same way. Not all bubbles behave the same way.

And not all bubbles turn out the same way….

Some end with a bang. Others deflate but turn into something else….

Each new speculation bubble that comes along has its own set of drivers, its own unique quirks and its own specific destiny….

  • The first recorded speculation bubble….

In the 17th Century, the Dutch Republic was the world’s foremost economic power….

Tulip bulbs first appeared there in the late 16th Century. The tulip was different than any other flower in Europe at the time. There were multiple varieties and the intensely colorful petals bewitched people. Tulips became popular.

Ownership of tulips rapidly became a status symbol. Pretty soon, tulips were considered a luxury item. Such was the demand for tulips in the 1630s, that traders bid up contract prices to absurd levels.

At peak, some tulip bulbs sold for more than 10 times the annual income of a skilled craftsman. Others for the price of a river-front house in Amsterdam.

In 1635, 40 bulbs sold for 100,000 florins (a ton of butter cost 100 florins). One investor offered 12 acres of land for a Semper Augustus bulb.… Click here to read more