Thursday, 28th May 2020
The ancient relationship between experience and money….
Early 2020 is on record as the most volatile period in the markets since the Great Depression….
The CBOE Volatility Index sits at 27.6. That’s well short of a peak fear reading of 82.69 recorded on 16th March….
…. but still ahead of a year-to-date average of 16.0….
…. and a long way above the low readings (signaling confidence and/or complacency) seen for long periods during the bull market that followed the 08/09 global financial crisis….
In other words, volatility has subsided. But it hasn’t gone away. A bit like the COVID-19 virus….
- Recession ahead….
Something else that hasn’t gone away is worrying data – some of it the worst in living memory….
US jobless claims are at almost 40 million. That’s a fifth of the labour force in the world’s biggest economy sitting idle and watching daytime TV….
Output has slumped worldwide. World trade volumes have shrunk ‘precipitously’. Every metric you might quote is on the floor. Every sector in every economy has contracted….
Things are improving as global lockdowns relax – but only in terms of shrinking at slower pace. The world faces a post COVID-19 of steep and significant proportions….… Click here to read more