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Let’s start rating economic forecasters….

Wednesday, 13th February 2019

Let’s start rating economic forecasters….

Some folk collect stamps….

Here at Money Truths we collect economic and market predictions that turn into train-wrecks….

Perhaps we have a strange sense of humour. Perhaps we are simply warped. Maybe a bit of both….

But we collect these things anyway….

Primarily, because they amuse us and because laughter is always the best medicine….

But also, because these tales of wrong-headedness serve as a constant reminder of the fallibility of ‘experts’ when it comes to predicting the future….

  • Off-beam certainty….

Take Irving Fisher, for instance….

He was a smart guy. He was widely considered one of the great economists of the first half of the 20th century. He figured out the relationship between inflation and interest rates, among other things….

He was just the type of guy you might expect to know what was going on – and what would happen next….

But the world – especially the world of money – doesn’t work that way. It can make a fool out of just about anybody. Even Fisher fell victim….

Back in 1929, Fisher had this to say about the stock market….

‘Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau….Click here to read more

Don’t rule out a tax on ALL your bank deposits….

Monday, 28th January 2019

Don’t rule out a tax on ALL your bank deposits….

Here at Money Truths it is our belief that stocks are headed down….

For sure, there will be ups and downs along the way. Bear markets, corrections and even crashes are not perpendicular in nature….

But the general direction of travel will be toward lower stock values – significantly lower stock values – over time….

Of course, this is just our best guess. And we are always prepared – indeed, we expect – to be proved wrong….

Right now, legions stand against us on the field of play. Legions that believe now is the right time to buy….

  • A stampede of bulls….

The FT’s Ken Fisher was on the case last week. The headline of his column read thus….

‘Forget the investment losses of 2018, stocks will rebound….’

Fisher is bullish. ‘Don’t let the past blind you,’ he says. ‘2019 will be great….’

Fisher is founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments. Maybe his viewpoint is entirely objective….

Or maybe what he ‘believes’ is bound-up with what he hopes might happen on a commercial basis….

Who knows? But Fisher is not alone….

‘Ignore all the Brexit hysteria and buy UK stocks….’

That was the headline of a Merryn Somerset Webb column on the Moneyweek website last week….… Click here to read more

Get ahead in the markets – harness girl power….

Tuesday, 22nd January 2019

Get ahead in the markets – harness girl power….

After the global financial crisis of 2008/09, Christine Lagarde, chief of the International Monetary Fund, made some comments that enjoyed wide circulation. She said this….

‘I do believe women have different ways of taking risks, of addressing issues…. of ruminating a bit more before they jump to conclusions. And I think that as a result, particularly on the trading floor, in the financial markets in general, the approach would be different….’

The comments did not represent an outright condemnation of the entire male species nor any individual member of it….

But the insinuation was clear: had more women been at work in senior positions on Wall Street and in other financial centers around the world, the crisis probably wouldn’t have happened….

  • Lehman Sisters?

Once the crisis had been digested, many top-level bankers attended the World economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland….

They had an interesting debate around a hypothetical question: had Lehman Brothers (one bank that crashed and burned during the crisis) been Lehman Sisters, would it still have failed as it did?

The consensus opinion among the bankers was that Lehman Sisters would not have made quite so much money as Lehman Brothers did during the boom times, but that Lehman Sisters would still be in business today….… Click here to read more