Wednesday, 31st July 2019
Tune out the jabbering of the mob….
Have you ever been stood in a train station on Saturday night with two sets of inebriated football fans shouting, bawling and gesticulating at one another from opposing platforms?
It’s not the greatest advert for the public transport system. But it isn’t a bad metaphor for the world of cryptocurrencies….
The to-ing and fro-ing between proponents of cryptos and their detractors is never going to descend into mindless violence (at least it hasn’t yet), but it is sometimes equally tiresome….
I’ve been keeping track of the soap opera throughout July….
- For and against….
Bitcoin could reach $100,000 before the end of next year. So says Anthony Pompliano of Morgan Creek Digital….
Motley Fool reporter, Sean Williams, reckons that Bitcoin is ‘fundamentally flawed’ and that the bull rally we’ve seen during 2019 will not be sustained….
Mike Novogratz, billionaire investor and long-time Bitcoin superfan, says the first-mover crypto is set to rise above $40,000 by 2020….
Trading stalwart Peter Brandt says Bitcoin could fall all the way back to $3,000, if the current parabolic pattern breaks….
The CEO of Morgan Creek, Mark Yusko tells us Bitcoin is headed for $30,000. Better than that, by 2021 he sees it at $100,000….
King of the Jungle, President Donald Trump, tweets that Bitcoin is not money and that its value is ‘highly volatile and based on thin air….’
The Winklevoss twins opine that Bitcoin – which currently has a market cap of $174 billion – will eventually reach a market cap of more than $7 trillion (bigger than gold)….
Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, tweets that Bitcoin was a major marketing success for the big players who got in early – and that to really succeed those early adopters need to dump what they pumped without crashing the price….
Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, predicts Bitcoin will hit $365,000 by 2022….
And, so it goes on and on and on and on – one conflicting view running hard on the heels of another….
The more we see, hear and read, the less we know….
Each new opinion, each new analysis, each new argument subtracts from the overall pool of intelligence….
So much has been written, so much has been said and so much has been tweeted that very few of us know what to think in the sonic glare of it all….
- Who do you believe?
Who can you believe? Maybe that is the better question. And why would you believe any of them?
How do we make sense of any of this? How do we know who to trust?
How can we know what is incentivizing these people? How can we know for sure what is motivating each of these characters (and 50,000 more just like them standing in the wings) to stake out his particular position?
Is Mike Novogratz trying to help me with a good steer because he’s such a great guy?
Or is he a long-term holder of Bitcoin who wants new players to start dreaming and to get invested so that Bitcoin might scale new heights and enrich him beyond our wildest fantasies?
Is Donald Trump a sincere and objective commentator who we can trust to be thoughtfully impartial?
Or does the President have skin in the game? Might his comments have something to do with the fact that he has a vested interest in protecting the US dollar – the instrument through which he wields so much power across the globe – from competition?
And who the hell is Anthony Pompliano? Is he a genius or a moron? Or is he somewhere in between?
I wouldn’t know. I couldn’t tell you. I’d never heard of him ahead of last week….
And does Dan Morehead really believe what he is saying? Or is he trying to generate headlines, build a profile and make a name for himself with a big call that serves the needs of a slathering 24-hour-a-day news media?
- Focus on what’s really important….
Without answers to those questions – and none of us can know the answers for sure – these people and their opinions are just so much noise….
My advice is to tune it out. Discount it as the jabbering of the mob….
Don’t try and make sense of it. Don’t try to sort the wheat from the chaff. That would be a fool’s errand – most likely with a fool’s reward at the end of it….
Certainly, don’t rely on any of this noise to inform your view of where Bitcoin might be going in the months and years ahead….
Think of this noise as mere entertainment…. as soap-opera…. as stuff that exists to fill newspapers and airtime. Think of it as a complete and utter waste of your valuable time….
If you can manage it, the best thing to do is to ignore it completely. Don’t even look at it, if you can help it. Don’t get stuck in it….
I would say that making that one simple adjustment to your attitude and approach will give you an edge over at least 80% of the market – maybe more….
And it will give you so much more time to focus on what really is important when trying to assess what might happen next….
Focusing on action rather than words….
Focusing on what is actually happening rather than what is being said….
- Concrete stuff….
A lot of people have an awful a lot to say about the crypto-space – driven by 1001 different agendas….
Most of what is said isn’t worth the paper it is printed on. It certainly won’t help you make sense of anything….
But there are lots of thing that are actually happening – away form the hyperbole and the rancor and the egos and the bullshit and the vested interests and the red herrings – things that tell you a little more about what is really happening and what it will mean going forward….
We’ll get on to some of that concrete stuff next time….
That’s the truth of it as we see it….
All the best,